The Fall Market Has Officially Begun: What NYC Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

^{Labor Day is behind us, the kids are back in school, and the Fall market in New York City is officially underway. The honest answer to whether now is a good time to buy or sell depends on what you own, what you're looking for, and which part of the city you're in. With that said, there are several dynamics this Fall that every buyer and seller should understand before making a move.}

^{Where the Market Stands}

^{Some Notable figures heading into Fall:}

• ^{Manhattan signed contracts, 2Q 2026 - 3,477, up 5% year over year. A five-year high, so buyers were active even with rates in the mid-6% range.}
• ^{Manhattan median sale price - $1.3 million, up 7%. The second-highest level ever recorded.}
• ^{Manhattan active listings - 7,182, the lowest second-quarter inventory in eight years. Less competition for sellers, fewer choices for buyers.}
• ^{Brooklyn signed contracts - up 15%, the strongest annual gain in more than four years. Days on market fell to 72, the fastest second-quarter pace in a decade.}
• ^{Brooklyn active listings - 2,003, up 8% and the highest second-quarter total since early 2022, led by resale co-ops and condos.}

^{Sources: Corcoran's Manhattan and Brooklyn 2Q 2026 reports.}

^{The late summer numbers were softer. During the week of August 31 through September 6, only 13 contracts were signed in Manhattan on homes asking $4 million or more and not one was over $10 million, according to the Olshan Luxury Market Report. That was the lowest weekly dollar volume since September 2023. I wouldn't read too much into one holiday week, and through the end of August buyers had still signed 218 contracts at $10 million and above compared to 202 at the same point last year. But I'll be watching how quickly the high end picks back up this month.}

^{Mortgage Rates and the Fed}

^{The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.76% as of September 10 according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.35% a year ago.}

^{The Federal Reserve meets September 15-16, and this time the conversation is about whether it raises rates, not whether it cuts them. In a Reuters poll this week, 65 of 93 economists expected the Fed to hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. That's down from 90% in August, and the rest expect a quarter-point increase.}

^{I don't know which way this goes and I'd be skeptical of anyone who tells you they do. What I would tell buyers is not to build a purchase plan around a rate drop that may not come this year. Rates matter a lot more to a first-time buyer financing a one-bedroom than to a cash buyer at the top of the market.}

^{The New Pied-à-Terre Tax}

^{This is the biggest new variable in the luxury market this Fall. New York City's pied-à-terre tax took effect July 1, 2026 and applies to homes that are not the owner's primary residence. For the first two years, condos and co-ops with a Department of Finance market value of $1 million or more face an annual surcharge of 4% to 6.5%, and one-to-three family homes valued over $5 million face 0.8% to 1.3%. Starting July 1, 2028 the threshold moves to $5 million based on actual market value. The deadline to file for an exemption was extended to September 18, 2026.}

^{Note: the Department of Finance value for most condos and co-ops is well below what the apartment would actually sell for, so the $1 million threshold applies to fewer apartments than it sounds like.}

^{Corcoran reported that Manhattan contract activity above $5 million has softened since the tax was announced, with the sharpest pullback at the ultra-luxury end. If you're buying a primary residence, this tax doesn't apply to you. If you're buying a second home or an investment property, speak with your attorney and accountant before you sign a contract, not after. I also think some second-home owners may decide to sell this Fall rather than carry the surcharge, which could bring new luxury inventory to market. That's my read, not something the data has confirmed yet.}

^{Rentals and New Development}

^{The rental market is as tight as I've seen it in years. The median Manhattan rent was $5,285 in August, up 7% from a year ago, and the vacancy rate dropped to 1.51%, the lowest since 2019. At that median, a renter is paying $63,420 a year for an apartment they don't own. I think that will push a lot of renters to take a serious look at buying this Fall, even at today's rates.}

^{New construction supply is also shrinking. Manhattan new development inventory is down 62% over the last year according to appraiser Jonathan Miller, and Olshan counted just 12 sponsor contracts at $4 million and up during a four-week stretch this summer compared to a decade average of 28. Fewer new buildings means fewer choices for buyers who want new construction and more attention on well-maintained resale condos.}

^{The Fall Calendar}

^{StreetEasy's analysis of the city's buying seasons shows listings typically rebound in September and October, though the increase is smaller than in the Spring. October has also been one of the most active months for price reductions, with an average of 12.4% of listings cutting their price over a three-year period, just behind May at 12.5%.}

^{The real deadline this Fall is the holidays. Once we get into late November, attorneys, lenders, and co-op boards all slow down. If a co-op goes into contract in mid-November, I'd expect it to close in the new year.}

^{Tips for Buyers}

^{Have your financing fully in place before you make an offer. With the Fed meeting next week, talk to your lender now about when and how you'd lock your rate.}

^{Take a second look at what sat all summer. A seller who has been on the market since June is in a different position in October than they were in July. Some of the best opportunities this Fall will be apartments that were overlooked because of price or presentation, not because anything is wrong with them.}

^{Do the homework on the building. Ask for the financials, the board minutes, and any planned assessments. When something about a building or the construction doesn't feel right, we bring in our own contractors, architects, and inspectors so our buyers get real answers before they commit.}

^{Tips for Sellers}

^{Price it correctly from day one. Buyers this Fall are well informed and they're comparing everything. I've learned this one the hard way. When a property doesn't sell, it almost always comes down to price, and it usually means we valued something that buyers didn't. The first few weeks on the market bring the most attention and you don't get that back with a price reduction. If you can, be on the market by early October.}

^{Know your segment. In Manhattan, low inventory means less competition for a well-priced apartment. In Brooklyn, overall inventory is up but listings over $1 million are down 5% and listings over $2 million are down 17%, so a higher-end Brooklyn seller is in a very different position than someone selling an entry-level co-op.}

^{Consider testing your price before going public. Compass Private Exclusive allows us to test our pricing and leverage our off-market status without accumulating days on market. After 1-2 weeks we have real feedback from buyers and agents to guide the public price.}

^{Every neighborhood and building behaves a little differently, and the headline numbers don't always reflect what's happening in yours. If you're thinking about buying or selling this Fall, reach out and we'll put together a market evaluation for your property or your search. Let me know if you have any questions. I'll share an update after the Fed's decision next week.}

‍

^Best,

^James

^‍